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A new report from Eilers Research offers what I’d argue is the most sober and accurate projection to date for regulated iGaming revenues in the United States.
The report, titled “The U.S. iGaming (Real) Opportunity” and authored by Eilers’ Adam Krejcik, provides a comprehensive survey of the state of US regulated online gambling and predicts the likely trajectory of the American iGaming industry through 2020.
The base case of Krejcik’s projections point to a total market size for US regulated online gambling of just under $2 billion by 2020:
What accounts for that gap?
The argument that online gambling revenue will come at the expense of land-based casino revenue is a popular one among opponents of regulation.
But the Eilers report puts that canard to rest, asserting that:
[W]e are staunch proponents that iGaming will not cannibalize existing land-based casino operations, and in fact may drive an increase in land-based gaming revenues over the long-run as casino operators are able to tap into a younger customer demographic, improve player loyalty programs, and enhance their marketing campaigns.
Krejcik’s report adds to the chorus of voices critical of those predictions.
He estimates $226mm in online gambling revenue once the market is “mature” – a state Krejcik puts as two or three years out from now.
Official New Jersey budget predictions for the first 7 months of regulated online gambling call for roughly five times the amount Krejcik predicts for Year 3.