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Even as traffic started to steadily decline in late February, revenue numbers remained stable through March. And while April revenue numbers did drop off from March, they did so to a less-severe degree than traffic levels would have predicted.
The explanation for the performance gap between traffic and revenue: The value rooms were managing to generate per player increased even as overall traffic waned.
That’s according to data from a recent edition of the Scouting Report – PokerScout.com’s daily analysis publication covering the global online poker industry:
As the graph indicates, May is the first month on record in which New Jersey online poker player values appear set to slow, rather than grow.
If that state of affairs holds for the remainder of the month, the negative impact on New Jersey’s online poker revenue numbers for May – already under significant pressure from consistently declining traffic – will be substantial.
Or, as PokerScout put it: “To date, May is showing a lower player value than the previous month for the first time this year. If that trend continues, New Jersey will soon feel the full weight of all the traffic that has been lost since January.”
How bad will it be? NJ pulled in about $2.5mm from poker in April. If player values were stable, I’d ballpark a 10-15% drop from April to May. With player values dipping, I could see that drop getting closer to 20%.
PokerScout’s Scouting Report is a daily newsletter for the online poker industry, with in-depth data and analysis of the market. More information can be found by clicking here or contacting [email protected].