Drop in Player Values Could Signal Further Decline for New Jersey Online Poker Numbers (GRAPH)

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For the last few months, there’s been something of a disconnect between cash game traffic at New Jersey’s regulated online poker sites and the revenue reported by those sites.

Even as traffic started to steadily decline in late February, revenue numbers remained stable through March. And while April revenue numbers did drop off from March, they did so to a less-severe degree than traffic levels would have predicted.

Rising player values explain the disconnect

The explanation for the performance gap between traffic and revenue: The value rooms were managing to generate per player increased even as overall traffic waned.

That’s according to data from a recent edition of the Scouting Report – PokerScout.com’s daily analysis publication covering the global online poker industry:

NJ online poker player value graph

May marks first month that values have declined

As the graph indicates, May is the first month on record in which New Jersey online poker player values appear set to slow, rather than grow.

If that state of affairs holds for the remainder of the month, the negative impact on New Jersey’s online poker revenue numbers for May – already under significant pressure from consistently declining traffic – will be substantial.

Or, as PokerScout put it: “To date, May is showing a lower player value than the previous month for the first time this year. If that trend continues, New Jersey will soon feel the full weight of all the traffic that has been lost since January.”

How bad will it be? NJ pulled in about $2.5mm from poker in April. If player values were stable, I’d ballpark a 10-15% drop from April to May. With player values dipping, I could see that drop getting closer to 20%.

PokerScout’s Scouting Report is a daily newsletter for the online poker industry, with in-depth data and analysis of the market. More information can be found by clicking here or contacting [email protected].

- Chris is the publisher of OnlinePokerReport.com. Grove also serves as a consultant to various stakeholders in the regulated market for online gambling in the United States.
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