If the current pace of activity continues, Nevada operators will generate around $18mm in total annual revenue from regulated online poker.
Nevada has decided not to break out online poker revenue in official reporting until three sites are operational.
The Nevada online poker market is currently made up of only two sites: WSOP.com and Ultimate Poker.
Many more are licensed and at least one – 888′s All American Poker Network – has indicated an intent to launch in 2014.
But Krejcik doesn’t see additional entries doing much to expand the market, writing that he does “not believe additional online poker sites /networks would have a material impact on the overall market size.”
Interstate compacts, and the extra liquidity they provide, could potentially grow the market. But Krejcik is pessimistic on that point as well, saying that “chances are low that NV and NJ enter into any type of inter-state compact this year.”
One wild card for Nevada’s regulated online poker sites: the impact of the World Series of Poker, which will bring tens of thousands of poker players to Las Vegas from May through July.
While online poker was available during the 2013 WSOP, it was a new product offered only by Ultimate Poker that suffered from myriad software issues.
This will be the first year that direct online satellites to live events (and the accompanying promotional push) will be a part of the World Series of Poker experience.
With more choices, improved software and the full weight of WSOP.com thrown behind online poker, the 2014 WSOP will be the first true test of whether or not Nevada’s online poker sites can convert an influx of live poker traffic to the virtual tables.