On January 14th, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement will post the initial revenue numbers for New Jersey’s regulated online poker sites and casinos.
These numbers will cover revenue for November and December. I suspect they’ll be rather raw numbers that point only to gross gaming yield (poker rake plus casino hold).
So what should we expect from the first round of numbers?
I’d put the line at $10.5mm for total GGY at the dozen or so online sites licensed by the DGE.
A few critical points that informed this estimate:
There aren’t really any specific forecasts for the first weeks of online gambling in New Jersey as it actually occurred. Instead, the majority of forecasts were developed prior to launch, meaning they don’t necessarily take into account many of the points raised above.
And many just include a flat estimate for Year 1 of online gambling, without breaking out the ramp-up that many expect to take place over the course of the first year as consumers get more and more comfortable with the concept.
With that said, here’s a sampling of forecasts for NJ online gambling revenue:
Obviously I’m coming in closer to the high end of the consensus. But I believe the amount of promotional money that casinos and poker sites have contributed to the pool will provide a boost, even if it’s somewhat illusory.
As for what the actual number says about the health and momentum of New Jersey’s regulated online gambling industry when it’s released on January 14th, I’d argue that anything over $10mm is a win, anything over $15mm is a massive win and anything below $6mm is a huge disappointment.